Echoing Finance Minister Jaswant Singh's projection of a "significant" economic growth this year, economists on Friday pegged the GDP growth at 6-6.5 per cent but cautioned the Centre on increasing debt and fiscal deficit.
ED and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence have detected a significant increase in the outflow of Indian money, specifically into four countries --Thailand, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.
'India's sizeable forex reserves should help stem a possible fall in our currency.'
The CAD was brought under control in 2013-14 after government imposed restrictions on import of gold. Following, this in 2014, certain restrictions were withdrawn.
'Valuations are very attractive, and most companies are cash-rich with strong dividend yields.'
Since end-May there has been volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Brent crude prices fell to $57 a barrel on Monday from $62 a barrel.
'A strong foreign exchange reserve is the best safety net against global spillovers.'
The benchmark Indian crude oil basket is now estimated to average $77.88 a barrel for FY19, compared to the government's earlier estimate of $65 a barrel for the year and $56.39 for FY18
Caution ahead of key consumer inflation data in the day also weighed.
The report, however, said a sustained weakness in USD against the emerging market forex remains a key risk to this view.
Gold reserve also declined by $340 million to $30.55 billion.
The RBI is widely expected to raise its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 8.00 per cent on Wednesday, its third such hike in four months after recent data showed both wholesale and retail inflation at multi-month highs.
"RBI has been following a good policy. These are the ways of correcting international imbalances," Department of Economic Affairs Secretary R Gopalan said on the sidelines of a seminar organised by ICRIER in New Delhi.
The currency's relatively stable performance even as the US announced tapering showed India's better preparedness to deal with any fallout of such foreign fund outflows.
India's exports in April jumped nearly three-fold to USD 30.63 billion from USD 10.36 billion in the same month last year, according to government data released on Friday.
There has been a stellar rise for the Indian markets this far in calendar year 2021 (CY21) with the S&P BSE Sensex surging over 19 per cent. The gain in mid-and small-cap indices on the BSE has been sharper with both these indexes surging around 38 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively during this period. Rampant spread of Covid pandemic's Delta variant and the ensuing lockdown and mobility curbs across India, rising prices key commodities, including crude oil and its impact on inflation, possibility of tightening of policy stance by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) have been some of the key headwinds that the markets successfully negotiated during this period.
Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) chairman Deepak Parekh on Tuesday said that while the country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and the recovery is in progress, the unpredictability of coronavirus will remain a key challenge. Owing to the second wave, the Indian economy is likely to mirror a similar trend seen in FY21, where the first half of the financial year is weaker and the second half is significantly stronger, he said. "I remain confident that India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong. Recovery is underway," Parekh said while addressing the 44th annual general meeting of HDFC Ltd. He said, the country's forex reserves and foreign direct investment inflows have scaled record highs, the capital markets are also buoyant and agriculture growth is expected to remain strong with food grain production estimated at over 305 million tonnes.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
India is facing no risk of recession or stagflation as macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy are strong, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Replying to a debate on price rise in the Lok Sabha, she said the GST collection and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are indicating that the Indian economy is getting more robust. The GST collection rose 28 per cent to touch the second-highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July. GST, introduced in July 2017, touched a record high of Rs 1.68 lakh crore in April 2022.
He added that the risks can increase if the Chinese slowdown gathers more speed.
The rising COVID-19 infections across the country are a matter of concern, but it may not impact the ongoing economic revival as one does not foresee lockdowns, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The economic revival will continue "unabated", Das said, asserting that there is no need for a downward revision of RBI's 10.5 per cent GDP growth forecast for FY22. Speaking at Times Network's India Economic Conclave, Das said, "We have 'insurance' to protect economic revival like a fast-paced vaccination drive, greater ability among people to follow COVID protocols", and one does not see lockdowns as well.
Credit card payments for foreign travel will be brought under the purview of the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) of the Reserve Bank, to ensure that such expenses do not escape TCS (Tax Collection at Source). While moving the Finance Bill 2023 for consideration and passage in the Lok Sabha on Friday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the Reserve Bank has been asked to look into ways to bring credit card payments on foreign tours under the LRS. "It has been represented that payments for foreign tours through a credit card are not being captured under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) and such payments escape tax collection at source (TCS)," she said.
The currency market won't care for our moans, groans, cries and sighs. The rupee will find its own level, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Email alarm made government close arbitrage window
The report said that "we believe, institutions are more important than individuals" and ultimately what is important is the credibility and the independence of any institution and nothing else.
Overseas investors, as well as other key stakeholders, such as brokers, custodians, and clearing corporations, are yet to iron out critical issues, even as the shift towards a shorter trade settlement cycle approaches new phases. Several industry players said foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are still facing impediments over the trade confirmation timelines, foreign exchange (forex) bookings, and pre-funding requirements. This could potentially act as a roadblock when it comes to moving entirely to the new T+1 settlement cycle from next year.
"The issue in Iraq is still an area of uncertainty.
China will use airpower to support Pakistan from the start of a war. China will use the opportunity to at least take Ladakh. Its growing navy will prevent India from blockading or attacking the Makran Coast. And thanks to Chinese weapons, Pakistan keeps expanding its forces, observes Ravi Rikhye.
India's economic image is not affected due to Adani Group's recent decision to pull out Rs 20,000 crore FPO (follow-on public offers) amid allegations of financial wrongdoings, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday.
It was a year of big gains for equity investors.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday said that the country's economic growth is picking up pace again and the domestic industry needs to enhance its risk-taking appetite. Noting the recent reforms taken by the government, the Prime Minister said that bringing reforms is a matter of conviction for his government, which is ready to take all risks in the national interest. "We have taken bold decisions. Reforms continued even during pandemic. "The government is doing reforms not out of compulsion but out of conviction," he said while addressing the CII's annual meeting.
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Chidambaram said recent measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India were aimed at reducing volatility in the financial market, where the rupee has dropped to record lows.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
The rupee appreciated by 0.27 per cent in June against the dollar.
While the fiscal year has just begun, any windfall surplus will be welcomed by the government as it bids to meet the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of GDP, amidst lack of clarity on exactly to what extent will recession in the West impact India's trade and tax collections.
The union government is expected to cut two per cent import duty in gold in the forthcoming budget, as local jewellers run out of inventory, a leading US brokerage said.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
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